These Prospects Are Statistical Anomalies. What Does That Mean for Their NBA Chances?

Featuring second-rounders, and one obvious guy at the top

Every year, analytics nerds — and I’m throwing myself in the group here — like to throw themselves at the outliers of the draft.

Last year, Rasheer Fleming’s sky-high 61.9% effective field goal percentage is one of the primary reasons he was taken in the beginning of the second-round. Keegan Murray went #4 out of Iowa due to absurd production, culminating in the best box plus-minus of any player in D1 basketball in 2022. Matisse Thybulle’s block percentage of 8.8% (!) and steal percentage of 6.6% (!!) made him a first-rounder in 2018. Every time a prospect comes along with some statistical anomaly, that often gives them a good chance at being drafted irrespective of the rest of their game. Sometimes it works out, and sometimes it doesn’t, but it always makes for good conversation.

Today, with the draft coming up this week, I want to take a look at the players who are major anomalies, and what that means for them as overall prospects. Let’s begin with a man who I’ve seen very, very high, and very, very low on boards, depending on who you ask…