The Statistical Favorites: Guards

A look at players my (simple) model may be predicting as impact players

Over the past few weeks, I’ve been dabbling a bit in statistical draft models. Is it possibly connected to the fact that I’m finally reading through Michael Lewis’ Moneyball? Possibly so!

Regardless, I’ve been putting together a few different basic models that, in my mind, do a decent job of at least putting guys in the conversation to become impact NBA players, with the target being the all-in-one xRAPM metric, which you can find here. For example, when I run my model through the 2018, 2019, and 2020 classes’ guards, you get these lists:

2018 Predicted Impact Guards (Top-5)

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

2. Ty Jerome

3. Grayson Allen

4. Jon Axel Gudmundson

5. Jevon Carter

2019 Predicted Impact Guards (Top-5)

1. Jalen Pickett

2. Ty Jerome

3. Sam Merrill

4. Shizz Alston Jr.

5. Ja Morant

2020 Predicted Impact Guards (Top-5)

1. Sam Merrill (due to another year in college)

2. Tyrese Haliburton

3. Jason Preston

4. TJ Haws

5. Javion Hamlett

As you can see, the lists are far from perfect. Jason Preston, TJ Haws, and Jon Axel Gudmundson either barely got the ball at the NBA level or never even made it there, while saying that Sam Merrill is better than Tyrese Haliburton is objectively false, though Merrill is a high-end winning player according to most advanced metrics.

And yet, the point here is not to give a defacto ranking of who will, without a doubt, be the best guard from each class, or even the assumptions of who will be; none of the above players, except for SGA, were on the super high end of the lottery by most scouts. Instead, it’s to talk about who might usurp expectations entirely.

Merrill went with the 60th overall pick and contributed to a 64-win Cavs team this year with a 37% three-point shot. Ty Jerome, too, has become a key piece for the Cavs after going 24th overall in 2019. Haliburton was selected 12th overall due to worries about his jumpshot and defense, yet he’s taking the Pacers to crazy heights right now. And Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, despite going 11th overall, is now an MVP, so this list isn’t terribly off, and most draft predictions are crapshoots anyway, right?

So, today I want to take a look at the same model and what it predicts for the 2025 Draft’s best guards. Like the above lists, some may end up as terrible misses, while others could end up as major Haliburton/SGA-esque hits. For every SGA, there’s also a Jon Axel Gudmundson.

Now, it’s worth noting that this model only takes into account NCAA guards due to the amount of data available on them. There are some intriguing international guards (Nolan Traore, Neoklis Avdalas, etc.), but I need extra data on them to really make a solid model.

With that out of the way, let’s take a look at the model’s top-5 guards for 2025…