The Statistical Favorites: Bigs

The finale of our little statistical draft model series

Over the past two weeks, we’ve talked quite a bit about the draft. Whether it’s the Wednesday roundups or articles like these on the weekends, I’ve had quite a fun time talking about this draft’s upcoming prospects. Today, I want to close out our statistical model series, in which I take a (simple) model that aims to find contributors that are underrated by consensus, by talking about this class’s big men.

If you haven’t read the past few weeks’ pieces, the model is not meant to be a de facto ranking of who will be the absolute best when their careers are said and done. For reference, here are some of the previous years’ results of the model:

2019 Draft Model (Bigs)

1. Brandon Clarke

2. Juwan Morgan

3. Charles Bassey

4. Daniel Gafford

5. Neemias Queta

2020 Draft Model (Bigs)

1. Xavier Tillman

2. Luka Garza

3. Onyeka Okongwu

4. Paul Reed

5. Jalen Smith

2021 Draft Model (Bigs)

1. Evan Mobley

2. Santi Aldama

3. Neemias Queta (pops up here again because he went back to college)

4. Jay Huff

5. Luka Garza (same reasoning as Queta)

As you can see, the 2021 draft model was by far the most impressive in terms of predictive power. Mobley has been far and away the best big (though virtually every scout could have told you that from day one in the class), Santi Aldama has become a great contributor for the Grizzlies, Queta has been impressive in small bursts for the Celtics, Jay Huff is this year’s shocking role player contributor, and Luka Garza, well, he’s seemingly too good for the G League but not good enough for a full-time NBA role — but still!

The other years weren’t hitting as well, but they did have at least a common thread, that thread being: If you’re in the top-5 in this model, you have a decent chance at being a contributor at the NBA level. Onyeka Okongwu has been a great guy for the Hawks, Brandon Clarke (when healthy) is extremely switchable, Daniel Gafford is a block party in and of himself, and Jalen Smith has quietly been one of the more effective low-usage big men in the league for the Bulls.

The point is, the following top 5 for 2025 may not be exactly how it shakes out, but there’s at least a high chance that they end up as solid role players at the next level. It’s not a ceiling test, but it is one pertaining to floor.

With that out of the way, let’s dig into our statistical top 5!

Oh, wait, sorry, one more quick note before we do that, and I’m even being so kind as to put it before the paywall…

Missing Yaxel In Action

When I first ran this model, the #1 name that consistently popped up was Yaxel Lendeborg. Every single time, the big man who was once projected to be a first-round pick in this draft would skyrocket to the top, and it’s easy to see why. He put up over 17 PPG at UAB, shot nearly 36% from three, snatched over 11 rebounds, and, crucially for this model, had steal and block rates of 2.8% and 5.1%, respectively (those are both quite high).

And yet, at the last minute, Yaxel decided to forgo being a first-rounder and opted to go to Michigan for one more year. That does not change my outlook on him (despite the fact he’ll be almost 24 by next year’s draft), so it’s worth noting where he’d be if he were available in this class.

Now, let’s actually get into our top 5…