The Most Effective Rookie Isn't Who You Think

Based on BPM, one second-rounder may keep one of the league's longest streaks going

I’ve said this before, but this year’s rookie class is, at best, weird. I don’t like to veer into the “this class is terrible” territory, but it certainly hasn’t been a quality season from the league’s greenest group. Earlier this season, I noted that the NBA may see one of its longest-running streaks broken this year, and it isn’t a good one.

According to my data, every single season in NBA history has had at least one rookie play 40+ games and record a box plus-minus of 1 or greater. In other words, one normal-playing rookie per season has been at least 1 point above league average in their contributions to their team. Once again, every single season has had one rookie fit that bill.

Right now, that number is zero. Take that for what you will.

And yet, there is one rookie who is very close to meeting that mark. You won’t find him in the top-5 — Risacher, Castle, and Sarr have all shown flashes of fun, but Castle would be the only one with star potential and is still relatively raw. You won’t find him in the lottery, either. Zach Edey has been good for the Grizzlies and Kel’El Ware has also been a quality big, but neither fits the 1+ BPM floor. Heck, you won’t even find him in the first round.

No, the best rookie in the draft, only judging by BPM, came much later than that, and he’s somehow turned what was considered a vastly limited game into one that has uplifted a current title contender.