The League's Least Effective Scorers and What to Do About Them

Featuring my increasingly-frequent data viz obsession

Some guys are just tough to watch. In a league that incentivizes taking a lot of threes — and just jumpers in general — you’re going to have some players who lay a lot of bricks and get clowned for it as a result.

This season, there have been a few guys I’ve worried about from a jumper perspective, such as Ja Morant, who has his own drama going on. However, today, I want to take a look at the 5 players who are statistically the worst scorers so far through these first few weeks.

To do so, I’ve calculated the points per shot (PPS) for every player in the league. It’s not very complex; you take a player’s points scored, divide them by the number of shots they’ve taken (not counting free throws), and wallah, you have PPS. Then, once you sort by the smallest amount, you get the league’s five least effective scorers, give or take. To prevent having some crazy outliers, I’ve put a threshold of at least 50 FGA, just out of precaution.

After sifting through the data, I put the guys into a graphic below, but I want to talk about each player in a bit more detail as well, in the context of their teams and roles, no matter how large or small.

Now, let’s go through all those players and see what the deal is — and what needs to change…

Ace Bailey, the Mid-Range Nightmare (in a Bad Way)

Ace Bailey had me fooled during the preseason. The Jazz turned him into uber-Michael Porter Jr. for two games, and now his regular-season stats look, um, not great:

• 5.1 PPG (17 MIN)

• 32% FG

• 13.3% 3P (!)

Even if you somehow were to ignore the stats, you could make the argument that Bailey has the most confounding shot chart out of any rookie right now. Below, you’ll see a chart that shows Bailey’s relative FG%. The more red a hexagon is, the lower he shoots versus the league average from that spot, and the more purple it is, the higher/more efficient he is than that same average.

As you can see, there’s a lot of red, and his shots are all over the place:

The three-pointers are likely to be the most concerning in most people’s eyes, but I find it hard to believe that his 13% clip will continue; he’s just too good a shooter fundamentally. Where I’m more concerned long-term is his penchant for mid-range shots, and ones that he’s not knocking down in-movement.

Now, I’m as much of a proponent for the mid-range game as anyone, but Bailey’s decision-making when trying to push for mid-range looks is iffy at best and horrific at worst. For example, when he gets into an isolation opportunity, he tries really hard to get his shot off inside the arc, even when he lacks enough control of the ball to give himself the space he needs:

You may think I’m cherry-picking the above clip, but I’m not. Here’s another one, for example:

Fortunately, Bailey is a rookie, hence why I’ll give him a bit of the benefit of the doubt here. Plus, his current role for the Jazz hasn’t been what most expected for him coming out of college. Case in point, he’s averaging 2.11 seconds per touch, which is the 7th-least out of any rookie and is less than guys like Kon Knueppel, who are mainly catch-and-shoot threats.

The question is whether or not this choice from (admittedly awesome) head coach Will Hardy will pay off as Bailey continues to get minutes and to pick his spots. You could make the case that it would be better to let him ride, both because the Jazz have nothing to lose and he could get more #1 option reps, but you could equally make the case that he needs to learn to play within constraints — I hear the CLA bells ringing — to blossom into a truly well-rounded player instead of a shot-chucker.

I feel as though I’m saying a lot while also saying very little in Bailey’s case, but here’s what I want to see change for Bailey throughout the season:

• See his shot fall more often (duh)

• Refuse to settle for mid-range looks when you could get a three or a rim attempt

• Be more in control with the ball instead of a flailing mess, which is exactly what he’s been thus far

The Jazz would feel truly conned if Bailey continued to show up in the bottom 5 in PPS, so at least 2 of the 3 points above need to happen over the course of the next 6-12 months.

RayJ Dennis, With Diminishing Returns