Midterms: Checking in On Preseason Title Favorites
Who's making good on their promise, and who needs their All-Star Break?
No NBA season goes as smoothly as you expect. If that were the case, the Celtics would’ve won the title last year, the Nets would’ve won a chip with Harden, KD, and Kyrie, and the Warriors would’ve had the threepeat. Of course, OKC had other plans, the Nets’ trio couldn’t consistently get on court together, and Kawhi Leonard turned into Michael Jordan for a postseason.
Hence, it’s always worth checking in with the preseason title favorites to see where everything stands, because they tend to give us a glimpse into how the previous odds may have been wrong. Case in point, Toronto had a better record at the All-Star Break than Golden State in that championship season, while the Nets had already faltered by the time teams were heading to All-Star Weekend.
Today, I want to take a look at the preseason odds — and once again, I’m no gambling proponent — and see where the favorites have ended up. We’ll take a gander at the players who are changing the narratives for their teams (both for better and for worse), what needs to go right between now and the playoffs, and whether they’re still worth being deemed contenders.
For reference, here are the preseason odds for the championship. We won’t go through all the teams listed here, but it’s good to keep in mind:
Oklahoma City Thunder — +240
Denver Nuggets — +550
Cleveland Cavaliers — +750
New York Knicks — +900
Minnesota Timberwolves — +1300
Houston Rockets — +1400
Los Angeles Lakers — +1600
Los Angeles Clippers — +1800
Orlando Magic — +1800
Golden State Warriors — +2500
Let’s start at the top and work our way down a bit…
Oklahoma City, With the Curse of Expectation
The Thunder won 24 of their first 25 games, are the #1 team in the Western Conference, and have done so while only playing 22 games with both Jalen Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor together. And somehow, people appear to be framing them as underachievers?
Maybe it’s simply the online circles I run in, but it appears that we are being struck with a horrific case of recency bias here. Yes, the Thunder have won “just” 8 of their last 15 games. Yes, they’ve shown some weaknesses at inopportune times. But this team is the #1 team in the West and has Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams (and Chet Holmgren). But I digress.
For the sake of actually analyzing this team instead of ranting about the state of basketball discourse, there are some things that have gone really well this season for OKC, and others that haven’t been as positive. Let’s start with the negative side before coming back around.
The biggest problem is the decline of Jalen Williams’ jumpshot — and I’m talking about efficiency here. According to Synergy’s tracking data, Williams is shooting 37.9% on jumpers, and his points per play on those rank in the abysmal 22nd percentile. Crucially, his jumper frequency has dipped significantly, going from slightly below average last year to the bottom quartile this year. Even worse, he’s taking more dribble jumpers this year on the shots he is taking, creating a terrible-tasting stew of poor shot selection; witness it in real-time:
The easiest explanation here is Jalen Williams’ wrist surgery from after the championship run last year. I think there’s a definitive effort from Williams to take more shots at the rim (which he very much is this season, and I see that as a positive), but that lack of confidence/stability could be showing up in his inability to make jumpers. However, when he does take the jumpers, it’s more like he’s trying to draw fouls rather than make the shot, as in the above clip.
That’s one big issue, and it’s concerning for the future of Williams career — though certainly not derailing completely. A bigger issue for this team this season has been the fact that they cannot rebound.
OKC is 25th in rebounding percentage this season, and their offensive rebounding percentage drops by a whopping 9.4% when big man Isaiah Hartenstein steps off the court. For reference, 9% is the gap between the first-ranked team in offensive rebounding (the Rockets) and the 17th-ranked one (the Jazz), so it’s huge.
You’d think the team would’ve addressed that at the deadline or via the buyout market, but they did neither, and that’s the biggest problem for this team and will be when the playoffs come around, and the game slows down.
Enough with the bad, though, because there’s a lot of good to talk about despite the recency bias coursing through NBA Twitter’s veins. For one, SGA is still playing at an MVP level despite teams defending him slightly better. Two, this team has the #1 defensive rating and the 4th-best offensive rating, with the former due to the still-underrated defensive depth this team has (Cason Wallace, baby!).
And the biggest positive aspect for this team’s success this season wasn’t even on the squad a couple of weeks ago.
The Sixers dumped Jared McCain, a previous ROTY candidate, for essentially scraps. Right away, he’s found his footing with OKC, shooting 43% from deep and scoring over 9 points in just 18 minutes of play. In other words, he’s good for an easy spark off the bench, and he hasn’t even had that much time to acclimate. When I say this is the best thing that could’ve happened to OKC this season, I’m not exaggerating: McCain is under contract through the end of 2027-28, and at minimum can be this team’s best spark plug.
So what’s the verdict on OKC? In my mind, it’s simple: Despite some faltering and weaknesses, OKC should still be seen as the favorite for the chip. They have too many weapons, too much depth, and, even considering the rebounding woes, the most suffocating defense in the league.
