Hit the Lottery: The Biggest Draft Decisions for the Most Interesting Lottery Teams
Top-3 picks, efficiency vs. potential, and looking to the future of tanking
It’s finally time — well, one more day and it will be, that is.
The NBA Draft lottery is tomorrow, which is the most fun time for fans of any team not in the playoffs. The thrill of seeing the Houston Rockets break into the top-4 of the 2023 Draft — the Wemby Draft — was absolutely incredible, and the following disappointment of getting #4 instead of #1 was pretty gutting (though Amen Thompson was certainly a great consolation prize).
This year’s lottery feels different than other years. The primary reason for that is the NBA’s upcoming tanking reforms, which I believe to be a bit too heavy-handed (unnecessarily), but will certainly make for an interesting lottery process from here on out. I have harped on the idea that tanking does not work historically, and I believe that wholeheartedly. There are exceptions to every rule, however, and this year’s top-heavy class may be one of them.
Today, I want to take a look at some of the most interesting lottery teams, along with what would happen if a certain set of outcomes occurred. Not all are tanking teams, though some are, and they all have something at stake this year before the new reforms kick in.
Let’s start with the team that arguably has the most to lose due to, shall we say, the consequences of their actions…
How Hard Can the Mavs Swing?
The NBA lottery is largely a game of best player available. While a safe bet player can help you win championships if you have an existing roster, one that is higher-risk can result in you actually getting to the championship in the first place. That’s irrespective of where you pick, as we’ve seen the depth in the latter half of the lottery over the past decade-plus — Giannis Antetokounmpo was taken 15th overall, after all.
Hence, the Mavericks have the most “swing hard” potential. They do not own their picks outright through 2031, and with Cooper Flagg already showcasing what he can do at a superstar level, they need to pair him with another young star to really get this train going.
They currently stand at 8th in the lottery, with 29% chance of jumping into the top-4. That’s a solid chance, but obviously unlikely, as basic mathematics would tell you. Assuming they stand pat at #8, a couple of players look like options:
Mikel Brown Jr., a high-upside shotmaking guard who dealt with a back injury for part of his freshman season
Brayden Burries, a 6’4” SG who rebounds well for his size and appears to be a high-floor, lower-ceiling bet
Nate Ament, a massive wildcard of a 6’10” forward who had some very high highs and some very low lows as a shotmaker and defender
Maybe Kingston Flemings, who has been mocked closer and closer to #8 as time has gone on — a high-energy, on-ball playmaker who may be a bit frail and has wonky shooting mechanics, despite a 39% three-point shot
If you’re the Mavs, do you go for one of those guys? Or do you try to trade up?
While I’m no GM, I see two options here that have the combination of upside and realism: If he’s there, draft Kingston Flemings. If he’s not, trade up into the top-5 if you can. If that’s not an option, draft Nate Ament.
I’m not really that big of a fan of Brown Jr. due to the aforementioned back injuries, which have derailed many a prospect, and while he fills the future guard gap for this team, I have concerns about his game translating to the next level. As for Burries, he’s a good prospect for most teams, but doesn’t fit the “take a swing” mentality for this Mavs team right now.
Nate Ament, on the other hand, is high-risk based on his play, but the upside of a 6’10” shotmaker to play alongside Cooper Flagg is tantalizing. Plus — and I’m using my insight as an employee of Cerebro Sports, though these thoughts are my own — Ament was a consistent top-2% performer all throughout high school, which is rare for even the best prospects. While high school performance doesn’t always predict NBA performance, having as many top-tier games as he did in high school is a dead ringer for a potential star in the NBA. He’s also still 19, and as any draft modeler will tell you, being younger does help your chances.
I likely don’t have to explain my rationale for why I would think they should trade into the top-5, but I also believe it to be unrealistic given the lack of assets this team has.
If you’re a Mavs fan, you’d likely prefer to jump up anyway — and that’d be great for the future of the Cooper Flagg Bandwagon!
