Bring On The Finals: X-Factors (and Predictions!) With Smayan Srikanth
Porzingis' stifling efforts, the return of the Kleber defense, and Derrick White's chance to shine
On Thursday, we’ll have finally reached the NBA’s pinnacle – the NBA Finals are here, with the Mavericks and Celtics duking it out for all the marbles, as they say.
Today, I’m doing a breakdown of the series’ X-Factor players alongside fellow Substacker
, as well as one final series prediction toward the end. Enjoy!X-Factors: Porzingis, White, and…Maxi Kleber?
Smayan:
I want to state this very clearly.
The Celtics are playing hella sluggish. They don’t perform the first 3 quarters on defense, and then they return in the 4th quarter. They win. Look at these 4th quarter splits in the series (counting OT). The Pacers had 105 points in the 4 games. The Celtics had 140. While that may not seem like a huge difference, the Celtics won by 5 or fewer points in 3 games of the 4 game series.
The Mavericks had 153 points in the first quarter against the Timberwolves. First off, they’re a way harder opponent than the Pacers (who literally played without Haliburton; I know he wasn’t doing that well). Fine, they went an extra game, but if you take out that one loss in the 4th game, that’s still 133 points. If the Mavs can get to a hot start early, and the Celtics are still wiped out, that could make it harder for a 4th quarter comeback.
But, there’s one guy who could stop that—actually, maybe two guys, but I think one guy who would be significant.
His name is Kristaps Porziņģis. If this man could stop Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving, it’s a win. We know the Celtics can score. But, the defense has to lock in. Have you ever heard this? Offense wins games, but defense wins championships. That’s a great example of this.
The only question is, will he perform? He’s coming off an injury, and we don’t know how he’ll play. If they can get this guy to do his stuff, you’ve won the series, Boston.
What do you think, Jacob? Is Porzingis on your list too?
Jacob:
Porzingis was definitely on my list of X-Factors for this series – though not because of what he can do against Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving. The fact of the matter is that nobody can stop Luka and Kyrie, so the Celtics need to instead look to everyone else on the Mavs roster.
Throughout Boston’s playoff run, there has not been a single team that has been as effective in the frontcourt as Dallas, at least defensively speaking. The Pacers did a solid job with Myles Turner and Pascal Siakam, but Siakam’s main goal was to get to the basket as opposed to stopping opponents at the rim and out-rebound anyone. The Heat had Bam Adebayo and nobody else, so they’re out of the picture. Dallas, however, has utilized the Dereck Lively/Daniel Gafford duo to absolute perfection, and bringing Porzingis back is exactly what the Celtics need to stifle them as much as possible.
At the rim, no one has been better than Porzingis when it comes to defense. According to the NBA’s stats page, Porzingis causes opponents to shoot a whopping 13.7% worse within 6 feet of the basket, which ranks first out of all players who defend at least 5 rim attempts per game. Even without considering the floor spacing he provides, the Celtics need Porzingis to hold down the fort down low if they want to give themselves the best chance of winning this series.
On the Mavericks’ side of things, I’m extremely interested in how PJ Washington defends against Jayson Tatum. This will be Washington’s most important matchup of his career thus far, and despite the questions surrounding Tatum’s status as “that guy”, he’s still one of the biggest offensive threats in the league. Thoughts, Smayan?
Smayan:
I think P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford have been game-changers for the Dallas Mavericks.
Okay, here’s the thing about Tatum. He’s not “that guy”. He has that 0 clutch attribute on NBA 2K. (Jacob’s Note: Jayson Tatum has the “Free Points” badge in NBA2K24 which significantly ups his chances of making free throws in clutch situations. Before the badge was removed from the game entirely, Tatum also had a Hall Of Fame-level “Clutch Shooter” badge in NBA 2K23. But I digress…)
He’s not Curry. But, he’s a very good shooter. Just look at the stat line. He had 121 points in the Pacers series. That’s amazing!
PJ Washington is an amazing player, and I don’t know if this is a valid explanation, but I believe playoff inexperience will play a factor in this one. And if that isn’t a valid explanation, then I’m just going to plainly state that Tatum will tire PJ out.
Explanation for the first one. The amount of pressure that comes with being in the NBA final is unreal. It’s entirely different from a regular season game, and you can get blamed for losing the finals. After all, you and your team put in hard work for 8 straight months.
Explanation for the second one. Not really anything new. Tatum’s going to shoot the ball and while Washington may get 1 or 2 steals, it’s not going to change the momentum of the game.
We’ve seen Tatum get stopped before, and there is a chance he can get stopped now, but I just don’t see that happening and I don’t see P.J. Washington as an X-Factor (I’m sorry).
What do you think about Maxi Kleber, Jacob? He’s a mobile big man and can stop Kristaps Porzingis’s play.
Jacob:
If you had asked me this two years ago I would’ve felt confident that Kleber could have made a decent impact against Kristaps – now I think it’s going to be a much tougher ask, though that doesn’t mean it’s impossible.
On the interior, Kleber has done a solid job of defending lankier or bulkier threats, albeit on low volume this season. Here are some highlight matchups, along with what the opposing player shot with Kleber on them:
VS. Nikola Jokic (33% shooting)
VS. Kevin Durant (42% shooting)
VS. Kyle Kuzma (25% shooting)
VS. Bam Adebayo (28.6% shooting)
Now, Kristaps Porzingis plays very different from any of the above players, but Kleber’s defense has quietly been pretty solid. And, in reality, Kleber doesn’t necessarily need to make Porzingis shoot sub-40% for it to be a win. Instead, he should look to force Porzingis to defer to teammates and allow the better defenders on the Mavs (Daniel Gafford, Derrick Jones Jr., etc.) to clean up the mess.
Plus, Kleber will be more of a guy to defend off of the switch against Porzingis, considering that Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively will be doing the majority of the work against The Unicorn. Kleber, while important, is more of the janitor here.
Now, to me, the ultimate X-Factor in this series for the Celtics – not named Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum – is Derrick White. Both him and Jrue Holiday will have to get to work on Luka and Kyrie, but the offensive side of the ball is where White could have a real legacy series. What do you think, Smayan?
Smayan:
3 is always better than 2.
I completely agree with you about Derrick White being the ultimate X-Factor for the Celtics. It just is the truth. 39.9%. That’s his 3-point percentage in the playoffs. The other day, the Celtics wouldn’t have won without Derek White’s clutch three.
Tatum and Brown do get all the headlines (and yes, they are good), but the Celtics wouldn’t be here without Derrick White. He’s averaging 15.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 1.2 blocks per game in the playoffs!
That being said, the real question is can he do it again? Especially since this time, the Celtics are playing a team that actually had 50 wins on the season. I believe in Derrick White… I mean, Josh Hart does too.
"I might put — just like impactful, I might put Derrick White more impactful than [Jayson Tatum]," Hart said. "Look at every main play in the last six minutes of the fourth to overtime, every big play, he made. He's probably one of the most impactful players because he does just everything on the court, and does everything at a very high level."
- Josh Hart
Prediction Time!
Smayan:
We were just talking about Derrick White, so I think I should tell you what I’m predicting will happen in the series. I believe that White will be knocking down tough, but clutch shots. I know that the Mavs have playoff inexperience. Like I said before, there’s going to be a lot of pressure.
But, like you said, Jacob. Kyrie and Luka are unstoppable. Hence, I’m going to pick the Mavs in 7 here. We just don’t know what the Celtics will do against a “harder” opponent. The Heat, Cavs, and Pacers are all very good teams, but the Mavericks are better. They know “what to do”.
I also want to see the Mavs win. Boston has 17 titles. The Mavs only have one, and while I’m known to be a big Texas sports teams hater, I hate Boston’s teams more (excluding the Bruins).
What about you, Jacob? Who do you have winning?
Jacob:
Being a Texas resident, I’d love to see the Mavericks win out here. I’m not necessarily against Boston taking home the chip, but some of the great role players of this team – Dereck Lively, PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford, etc. – would have such feel-good stories if they won it all; Lively’s, in particular, would be the makings of a movie considering his mother’s untimely passing from cancer earlier this year.
And yet, Boston feels a little too stacked, all else equal. I made a prediction last week that the Celtics would win this series in 6 games, and I still feel the same now. Barring some absurdist, all-time series from Luka and/or Kyrie (or an untimely injury bug), Boston has too many weapons to crash and burn here.
When it comes to the Finals, however, things can go sideways extremely fast. Predictions are, therefore, useless – but it’s fun to speculate anyway.
Hopefully so, Jeff. C'mon Mavs.
I moved to Dallas right when the 2011 playoffs started and that worked out pretty good. The vibes feel similar. Mavs in 7.